Friends outside the USA have been asking my view of the election about to take place. Here is why I think Kamala Harris will win this election--though I know I could be wrong:
1. Trump is no longer a new, exciting, political figure. Many people are very sick and tired of all the Trump-related drama and stress, and though many of his followers are extremely loyal, some percentage may be dropping away and may come over to Harris. All she needs is for 1% of Trump supporters to give up on the Orange Fuhrer and she will be the next president. There are signs that this may be happening.
2. Harris is a fresh, exciting political presence, and she has run a very skillful, disciplined campaign, succeeding in distinguishing herself from Trump, showing herself to be thoughtful, intelligent, warm and positive, and also warning people of the dangers of Trump. She has struck a good balance between offering something positive (herself and the kind of ideas she has for programs that could really help people) and warning about something very negative (Trumpian chaos and Fascism).
3. The abortion issue is a huge problem for Trump, and a huge advantage for Harris. In case you don't know this history, Trump made clear in the past that he wanted to put in place Supreme Court Justices who would overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion in the USA in 1973, and then went ahead and did exactly that, with Trump-appointed Justices overruling Roe in the 2022 Dobbs Case. In every election since 2022 where abortion has been an election issue, it has meant victory for the Democrats, who want to restore abortion rights, versus Republicans who have opposed abortion rights. I think this trend will again be a factor in this presidential election, and I expect that women upset about this abortion situation are going to turn out in large numbers to support Harris.
4. Trump's horrible rally at Madison Square Garden (MSG) last week was full of many awful, mean, insulting and racist statements toward many groups in America made by many speakers, and one in particular is proving hugely damaging to Trump. A comedian named Tony Hinchcliffe called the U.S. Territory of Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage," and though he and others have tried to defend this as "just a joke," many Puerto Ricans and also other people of Latino descent are very angry, and this could shift hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of votes away from Trump and toward Kamala Harris. In the critical state of Pennsylvania, there are 300,000 to 500,000 Puerto Rican voters. If they all decide to vote for Harris, this could give her victory in the state, and then in the election overall.
5. Having spent time canvassing for the Harris campaign in Honesdale, Pennsylvania, I have seen the amazing, well-staffed campaign organization the Harris campaign has. I have heard that the Trump team does not have anywhere near the "ground game" that the Harris campaign has. I know that in some states, the Trump Republicans have outsourced their campaigning to outside groups such as Elon Musk-related group. I hear that these groups are not professional, not experienced, while the Harris campaign is highly professional and staffed with experienced pros. I think that this better campaign organization at the local level across the country will be a major plus for the Harris campaign, and could be decisive.
So, those are my reasons for optimism. There are also factors which could lead to a Trump victory, but I do not even want to mention them right now. I want to remain positive....
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